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Reply.com would like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.  We hope you have a wonderful day with friends and family.

 

Multiple reports are discussing the current slowdown in online advertising.  One of the areas that appears to be the hardest hit is display ads (banners).  From TechCrunch, AdBrite has starting selling banners based on cost-per-click (CPC).

“AdBrites’ CEO, Iggy Fanlo sees a “massive supply-demand imbalance” in the cost-per-impressions (CPM) world. There is just too much display advertising inventory sold on a CPM basis, and advertisers are fleeing to performance-based ads whose effectiveness are easier to measure. In fact, Fanlo expects: Within 6 months, we will be 50% performance-based on the banner side. I think there are a lot more bidders there.”

AdBrite is a mid-size publisher and serves 800 million ad impressions / day with a reach of 90 million people.  TechCrunch reports that AdBrite’s CPMs range between $0.50 and $2.00 / impression. Traditionally CPM advertising (tier 1) has been reserved for large Brand marketers while performance-based marketing normally embraces CPC.  If you read our ad:tech post, Banner advertising is on the decline, and is declining faster in media. Advertisers want to buy Google and know how it works, and are moving away CPM/banner ads.  51% of all local online spend is banners, and it is moving quickly into search and some into video. Also, companies are moving away from buying destination sites and are focusing on buying segments.

Moving banners from CPM to CPC makes them a lot more measurable and actionable.  I look forward to testing the system.

Below is Reply!’s presentation from Ad:Tech 2008. Additional posts from our time spent at this year’s Ad:Tech can be found here:

A report released today from the IAB and PwC shows that Internet Advertising was up in Q3 ‘08 to $5.9 Billion. That is a 11% increase over Q3 ‘07.  Q3 ‘08 is up 2% over Q2 ‘08 and while it represents small growth quarter-over-quarter, it is 14% growth year-over-year. 

The Internet advertising should be better positioned than offline to weather the economic downturn given that it is pay-for-performance, measurable and focused on returning results.

Below is Reply!’s presentation from Digital Dealer 2008. Additional posts from our time spent at this year’s Digital Dealer conference can be found here:

Few things in life bother me more than management teams of various companies conveniently blaming their shortcomings on the macroeconomic environment. Never mind that before the slow-down their company wasn’t in a much better situation.

When was the last time Chevrolet, Ford, or Chrysler produced the best-selling car in the country? Over the last ten years—besides the massive, gas-guzzling SUVs that lacked any significant innovation—what other claims to fame do these companies have?

Is it really that complicated to figure out that the market responds positively to cars like Accord, Camry and Prius? How many millions of these models do Toyota and Honda need to sell in order for the domestic manufacturers notice the trends?

Interestingly enough, I see similarities between the problems plaguing the domestic “big three” and a company in a very different industry, Yahoo. They all try to solve their problems through deal-making, rather than turning to innovation and a long-term, viable, differentiated strategy. Combining Chrysler and GM for the cash is a horrible premise and, for synergies associated with volume and size, is an even worse idea. You get to the right volume by introducing models that consumers want to own, not by combining models that should have been cut long ago and will continue to lose market share.

Here is a 5-point plan that I think will go a long way toward putting the American car makers back on the road:

  1. Own a product-line that’s made up of winners
    Car makers produce cars to make money, period. They should shut down all money-losing models, now. There should be no loyalty to any brand because one of the executives gets nostalgic when he rides in one. Kill the money-losers and cut enough elsewhere to become cash flow positive now—this quarter.
  2. Simplify your plan and, in the short-term, only commit to proven strategies
    Cut the consultants and simply listen to the market. Don’t get too fancy with your products for the short run (the next 2 to 3 years). You need to have your own Camry, Accord, and Prius.
  3. Communicate a killer strategy for the next 10 to 20 years
    As a nation, we like big ideas and big thinkers. Take a big bet and act like a visionary—become a visionary. For heaven’s sake, you guys have been in this industry for over 300 years combined. Where do you think the industry will go in the next 10 to 20 years? Solidify and communicate a differentiated, growth-oriented, and exciting strategy. Not only will your employees get fired up, but your customers will come along for the ride.
  4. Bring in new, driven, motivated leaders
    Bring a CEO from a distant industry and a distant geography. Let’s see, people in what state buy a lot of foreign cars? California? Great, bring a CEO from that state. Steve Jobs would be great. You need a visionary, not an operator. All of you have excellent operators.
  5. Deal with UAW
    The Union needs to wake up and understand that you can no longer be an employer that also produces cars but, rather, you are a car maker that employs qualified, professional, and hard-working people so you can make the cars and always earn a handsome profit. These employees should get paid a wage that represents their fair market value, and should be treated as your most valuable asset. You need to have the right to increase or decrease the size of your employee base as the market changes and opportunities arise or vanish. Any other type of relationship will not allow you to build a sustainable company for any of the parties involved.

To get the above done, you don’t need money from the government. In fact, I suggest that you stop wasting your time in Washington, and instead focus your efforts on fixing your own problems and cut enough to reach sustainability without counting on outside help. Own your problems and seek opportunities in the current market.

We have a nation of 300 million and a planet of over 6 billion screaming for cheaper, smaller, and more fuel-efficient cars. All car makers will be doing exactly that over the next 5 years. How will your approach be different than the simple, generic response we have come to expect form Detroit? Give it a try and surprise us with a response that does not further confirm the depressed nature of the industry but, rather, will uplift us by communicating your visionary strategy for the next decade or two and live up to your own, legendary past.

We’ll all be there to cheer for you and will drop our Toyotas and Hondas so we can once again own a symbol of American ingenuity.

My sincerest wishes for your success.

Payam Zamani
A founding father of the online automotive industry

I’ve been in the online lead generation industry for four years now and, in our business, it makes me a senior citizen.  I’ve worn many different hats at Reply!—from starting out on our retail automotive sales floor, selling to single dealerships, to managing our entire Retail Automotive business.  I’ve also worked with real estate agents, selling face-to-face at the National Association of Realtors Convention in 2004.  While I’ve never directly sold cars or real estate, I speak to lead buyers all day long.  In all the feedback I’ve received, there’s one thing I hear time and time again; Internet leads only work when they are worked.

Most lead buyers are constantly hiring and firing lead providers because “the leads don’t close.”  Six months down the road, they get a call from the provider they left, and the salesperson discusses changes to lead generation techniques and validation processes. The dealership or real estate agent gives the provider another chance—six more months pass and the leads “still don’t close,” and the cycle repeats.

Why don’t leads close?  Is it the lead buyer not properly working the leads, or is it the leads themselves?  I believe the answer is, “Both.”  Some of our clients tell us our leads were a waste of time, while others depend on us to hit their monthly sales targets and are very profitable.  Both are right, depending on how leads are called and nurtured.

The lead provider has two responsibilities: setting the right expectations and offering controls for the buyer to segment.  It is the provider’s job to communicate that Internet leads need to be worked and, when a buyer closes 10 of 100 leads, the other 90 will never transact.  It is the provider’s job to explain the follow-up process that is most successful when applied to Internet leads and discuss that lead validation is imperfect, so the lead buyer understands invalid leads are part of the game.  Ultimately, it’s the provider’s job to send leads that are intentful.

Assuming the right expectations are set, the buyer has the responsibility for working the leads.  Our most successful clients tell us that Internet leads are no different than floor traffic or face-to-face appointments—they need immediate attention.  Their auto-response emails are immediately sent to the consumer, and a phone call is placed within five minutes of a lead being received. Often, three to four phone calls at varying times of day are required to reach a consumer. Following the initial contact, the consumer should be placed in a drip campaign—coupled with phone calls—until an appointment is set, with continued follow-up until the lead buys or is unworkable.

From time-to-time, one of our customers becomes angry over “poor lead quality.”  I have a rule that I follow before I call a client back.  I take a snapshot of the last ten leads we’ve sent, and I call them myself.  The same result happens every time; I’ll be unable to reach one lead, leave voicemails for six, and I’ll speak with two to three people that want to talk about a car or real estate transaction.  Two to three appointments set from ten leads should ideally result in one sale, and we arrive at our 10% closing ratio.

If you’ve decided to invest in online, performance-based marketing, create a game plan regarding how you’re going to work the leads.  One of our top clients is a Toyota dealer in Southern California that closes 14% of their leads each month!  They call every lead four times-per-day, and keep the consumer in their database for up to six months, with frequent contact that is gradually reduced as time passes.  Our top real estate agents work leads for much longer; for most agents, one sale will cover their marketing costs for an entire year.

Many variables can affect your experience with Internet leads. One thing is clear—Internet leads are a predictable and measurable marketing investment, and will only work for you if they are actually worked.

Happy selling.

Geo-targeting has recently become an important part of our lead generation efforts because we service car dealers in particular geographies. The technology is not perfect, but it has allowed us to spend our ad dollars more efficiently as our revenue-per-lead is largely dependent on geographic location.

Our goal is to acquire the right traffic for our car dealers. We’ve approached a variety of ad networks, and no company has been willing to work with our ever-changing coverage maps and serve geo-targeted ad placements. Our only viable option has been the geo-targeting features offered by search engines. When we sign a car dealer as a lead buyer, we immediately launch geo-targeted SEM campaigns to mirror their coverage and target local consumers shopping for their products.

Although we’ve been successful at increasing revenue-per-lead through SEM geo-targeting, we’ve exposed flaws in IP location detection and a search engine’s ability to accurately serve ads in specific markets. At a high level, it’s difficult to drive significant volume through geo-targeted campaigns, and our geo-targeted cost-per-lead is considerably more expensive than our cost-per-lead across nationwide SEM campaigns.

For a case study, we chose a variety of zipcode and radius combinations and tried to generate Volvo leads in those areas through SEM geo-targeting (the same zipcode and radius combinations in which our Volvo dealers have agreed to purchase leads). The results weren’t what we expected.

To simplify our findings, we generated leads in our target markets. But only 50% of the total lead pool fell under our specified geography filters, suggesting a large percentage of our traffic came from unwanted areas. There are only two possible explanations:

  1. People are interested in purchasing vehicles in areas far away from their location at the time of completing our forms (highly unlikely)
  2. Search engines don’t always know exactly where each person is located, or they make false assumptions at times. Internet service providers such as Comcast and AT&T know where each IP address is located, but due to privacy concerns they cannot share everything with the search engines, placing limitations on geo-targeting (a topic for another post).

Regardless of which option we’re battling, the inability to accurately target specific locations significantly reduces our revenue-per-lead and invites wasteful spend. Advertisers need a better solution.

Serving businesses throughout the country, if we acquire visitors outside of our target geographies we can monetize the traffic and justify the expense. We’ve seen margin gains from our geo-targeting efforts, but not nearly the types of gains our financial modeling suggested under the assumption that IP location detection is 75% accurate.

Many local advertisers want to buy geo-targeted traffic, but the end result of a geo-targeted SEM campaign isn’t necessarily what they’ve signed up for. These types of inefficiencies make running profitable, geo-targeted SEM campaigns very difficult.

This begs the question—what options exist that will allow an advertiser to avoid inefficiencies in IP location technology and acquire traffic ONLY in the areas of their choice?

Google hit 3-year low yesterday and is down 55% for the year. Compare that with a 33% decline for the Dow Jones average.

The news may not be good for the Internet market as a whole, as downward pressure continues on Yahoo, Ebay, Amazon, and others. Of note, Google’s CTR (click-through rate) on paid ads also fell. As the size of the shopping carts is reduced at eCommerce sites, their margins shrink and they are forced to reduce their bids in Google, accelerating the downward spiral.

Said differently, companies need to focus their efforts on eliminating advertising waste and increasing their ROI.

 

The largest Multiple Listing Service system, MRIS is launching a beta MLS called HomesDatabase.  For now, only homes in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. are covered (DC, Pennsylvania, Maryland,  Northern Virginia, and parts of West Virginia).

Their goal is to compete with services like Zillow, Trulia and RedFin.com but they aim to offer more up-to-date information.  They also hope to partner with other regional MLS systems to expand to nationwide coverage.

It is great to see regional MLS services offering homelistings. It is good for buyers and sellers. At least the down-turn is forcing some real estate entities to think out of the box.

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